Characteristics of the hottest polyolefin industry

2022-08-18
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The characteristics of polyolefin industry development (Part I)

industry experts pointed out that today's polyolefin industry development has the following important characteristics:

I The world market of oversupply and its advantages make the sample show "t" "The Chinese market with huge consumption potential in character shape

in 2001, the world polyolefin production capacity was 103.05 million t/a, the output was 83.34 million T, and the operating rate was 80.9%. Among them, the polyethylene production capacity was 65.86 million t/a, the output was 51.07 million T, and the operating rate was 77.5%; the polypropylene production capacity was 37.19 million t/a, the output was 32.27 million T, and the operating rate was 86.8%. From 1996 to 2001, the annual growth rate of the world polyolefin production capacity was 7.2%, and the annual growth rate of demand was 5 . 6%, the growth rate of production capacity significantly exceeds the growth rate of demand, and the growth rate of polyethylene production capacity (6.5% per year) exceeds the growth rate of demand (4.2% per year)

according to the projects under construction and the announced construction plan, it is estimated that the world's total new polyolefin production capacity from 2002 to 2005 will be 17.22 million T/A, including 9.65 million T/A for polyethylene and 7.57 million T/A for polypropylene. Polyethylene medium high density polyethylene (HDPE) 3million T/A, low density polyethylene (LDPE) 2.07 million T/A, linear low density polyethylene (LLDPE) and full density polyethylene units 4.58 million T/A. In terms of time, it is estimated that the new capacity of polyethylene will be the largest in 2004 (about 3million T/a); According to the type of plant, LLDPE and full density polyethylene plants have the most new capacity, especially the full density polyethylene; 2002 is the year with the largest number of new polyolefin production capacity. It is predicted that the new capacity will reach 5.5 million T/A, and the new polypropylene capacity will reach 3.06 million T/A in the same period. Another peak of new polyolefin capacity in the world was in 2004

in 2001, the output of polyolefin in China was 6.31 million tons, including 3.08 million tons of polyethylene and 3.23 million tons of polypropylene. The output of polypropylene exceeded that of polyethylene, which was significantly different from the situation that the output ratio of polyethylene to polypropylene in polyolefin in the world was 1.58:1. In 2001, China's net import of polyolefin was 6.58 million tons, with a performance consumption of 12.89 million tons, including 7.45 million tons of polyethylene and 5.44 million tons of polypropylene. The ratio of the consumption of the two is 1.37:1, which is also lower than the ratio of 1.58:1 in the world. Compared with other countries in the world, polypropylene plays a more important role in polyolefin products in China. In, the average annual growth rate of China's apparent polyolefin consumption was 16.7%, which was 1.7 times the GDP growth rate of 9.8% in the same period. If the time period was changed to 1990-2001 and 1995-2001, the calculated average annual growth rates of China's apparent polyolefin consumption would be 18.4% and 17.5% respectively, and the ratio with the GDP growth rate of the same period would be 1.96:1 and 2.09:1 respectively. The fact that the growth rate of apparent demand for polyolefins in China is greater than that of GDP has not changed over time, and the ratio of the two has a gradually increasing trend. At the same time, the average annual growth rate of polypropylene apparent demand in the above three periods (20.1%, 22.3% and 18.2% respectively) is higher than that of polyethylene in the same period. Here is a brief introduction to the precautions for instrument protection and maintenance: long rate (15.5%, 16.8% and 17.2% respectively). In, the average self-sufficiency rate of domestic polyolefin products in China was 51.4%, and the average self-sufficiency rate of polypropylene (58.5%) was higher than that of polyethylene (46.3%). It is predicted that the performance demand of polyolefin in China in 2005 will be 17.3 million tons, including 9.8 million tons of polyethylene and 7.5 million tons of polypropylene. It is predicted that China's Polyolefin output in 2005 will be about 11million tons, including about 5.7 million tons of polyethylene and about 5.3 million tons of polypropylene. By 2005, nearly 40% of polyolefins in China still need to be imported

China has joined the WTO, and the further opening of the market has promoted the demand for petrochemical products. In the first half of 2002, China's imports of petrochemical products increased significantly year-on-year, mainly caused by the growth of domestic demand and the growth of downstream product orders from the United States and Western Europe. Compared with the same period last year, ldpe/lldpe, HDPE and polypropylene increased by 11%, 24% and 14% respectively. The import volume of naphtha, the main raw material of petrochemicals, increased by more than twice year-on-year in the first half of 2002

although China has huge market potential, the world market supply exceeds demand. A large number of new devices for China's market will be built in the next two to three years in surrounding countries. The production capacity of polyolefins in the Middle East with huge cost advantages is also increasing rapidly. Therefore, the domestic market situation is not optimistic. Affected by the slowdown of world economic growth and the centralized production of new capacity, China's Polyolefin prices have been declining since October 2000. Although the prices improved in 2002, they did not reach the 2000 level. In Yuyao, Shantou and Linyi markets, the prices of products imported from India and Malaysia are mostly lower than domestic products, and the prices of some Korean imported products are not higher than domestic products. The quality and service of many imported products are better than domestic products. Domestic polyolefin manufacturers are also facing the pressure of oversupply in the world polyolefin market and the fierce competition of imported products. (to be continued)

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