The hottest market consumption and profit of China

2022-08-18
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2017 China's paper industry market consumption and profit analysis

release date: Source: China industry information editor: Yu Jia browse times: 6859 copyright and disclaimer

core tip: according to the survey data of China Paper Association, the national paper and paperboard production was 108.55 million tons, an increase of 1.35% over the previous year; The consumption was 104.19 million tons, an increase of 0.65% over the previous year, and the output was still slightly higher than the sales volume, but the oversupply situation has been alleviated

6. The test results of electronic tensile testing machine can be output in Excel format [China Packaging News] according to the survey data of China Paper Association, the national paper and paperboard production was 108.55 million tons, an increase of 1.35% over the previous year; The consumption was 104.19 million tons, an increase of 0.65% over the previous year, and the output was still slightly higher than the sales volume, but the oversupply situation has been alleviated. From 2007 to 2016, the average annual growth rate of paper and paperboard production was 4.43%, and the average annual growth rate of consumption was 4.05%. Supply and demand reversed around 2010 from the perspective of failure probability. Under the condition of weak demand growth, the contradiction of overcapacity gradually appeared. Under the influence of the weak demand of the paper industry on the insufficient support of new production capacity and the rapid expansion in the early stage, the amount of fixed asset investment in the paper industry has decreased year by year since 2011. The growth rate of fixed asset investment in February 2016 fell to -17%, which was at the bottom of history, and then began to rise. Since 2017, fixed asset investment has maintained a single digit growth trend

comparison of production and consumption of paper and paperboard in China

data source: public data collation

cumulative value of fixed asset investment in the paper industry

data source: public data collation

due to excessive consumption in the paper industry, a large number of small and medium-sized paper and paper products enterprises were forced to withdraw from the industry. In 2011, the number decreased from more than 10000 to 6000, and then stabilized, the supply side decreased, easing the contradiction between supply and demand in the industry. With the pain of supply side adjustment, the recovery of industry prosperity is coming: the profit increase of papermaking and paper products industry hit the bottom in 2014, the total profit of the industry in 2014 was 69.8 billion yuan, and then entered the upward cycle. In 2016, the industry entered the rapid rise cycle of industry prosperity, and the profitability of the industry was quickly repaired and maintained at a high level

according to the list of eliminating backward and excess capacity in 2015 released by the Ministry of industry and information technology in September 2016, 1.67 million tons of papermaking capacity was eliminated in 2015. Among them, it involves 10 provinces or autonomous regions such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian, Shandong and Sichuan, involving more than 70 paper mills and more than 200 production lines. The nationwide large-scale capacity reduction action is bound to affect the paper inventory. As soon as the inventory is tight, the paper price will rise. Take Guangdong Province as an example. By the end of 2016, the province had eliminated 5.327 million tons of production capacity

by September 2017, the central environmental protection supervision group had launched four environmental protection inspections, which will cover the whole country. On the other hand, the issuance of emission permits accelerates the liquidation of the industry. As of July 8, 2017, the first phase of the issuance of emission permits for the paper industry has ended. A total of 2618 "emission permits" for the paper industry have been issued nationwide (6677 enterprises), and unqualified enterprises will be eliminated in succession

the number of papermaking and paper products enterprises has plummeted

data source: public information collation

the profitability of the papermaking industry has significantly improved and maintained at a high level

data source: public information collation

with the increase of national demand for paper and paper products, China's paper industry has a large supply gap of fiber raw materials, and domestic pulp can not meet domestic demand. In 2015, China imported 19.85 million tons of wood pulp, 29.28 million tons of waste paper and 9.7 million tons of wood chips, becoming the world's largest wood pulp importer. Imported fiber raw materials account for more than 47% of the total fiber consumption, and wood pulp imports account for more than 65%. Therefore, the domestic pulp price mainly depends on the international wood pulp supply and demand pattern

the profitability of the paper industry has been significantly improved and maintained at a high level. Data source: public data collection

in 2016, the total amount of global wood pulp was about 5million tons, and the pulp price in 2016 showed a downward trend. Due to the recovery of the international economy, the growth rate of international wood pulp demand reached 3.3% in 2017, with an accelerating trend. From the perspective of supply, the new indication value of trade pulp drifts or jumps randomly. If the 220V voltage of the power supply is unstable, the production capacity is relatively determined: the increment of broad-leaved pulp is 1.95 million tons newly added in Brazil in the second half of 2017 and 1.4 million tons of production capacity in Indonesia, and the increment of coniferous pulp is 700000 tons put into production in Fenbao; Lu Jun said that the global trade volume of pulp is close to 60million tons/year. Due to the high concentration of pulp producers in broad-leaved pulp trade, we judge that producers will maintain the trend of steadily releasing production capacity. In the medium and long term, supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance, or will be reduced with the launch of new production capacity and entering the off-season, but it is difficult to have a cliff like decline. In the short term, the pulp price remains high. At present, the inventory of China's three major ports is still at a low level. In late October 2017, the inventory of Changshu port decreased by 37% year-on-year, the inventory of Qingdao port increased by 23% month on month, with a year-on-year decrease of 31%, and the inventory of Baoding port increased by 26% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 2%. The port inventory is running at a low level, the pulp price is generally stable, and will remain high in the short term

broad leaf pulp futures price

data source: public data collation

coniferous pulp futures price

data source: public data collation

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